Why Russia and Turkey’s strongmen still need each other too much to start another war between their countries.

Vladimir Putin has unsurprisingly reacted angrily to Turkey’s shooting down of a Russian pilot engaged in air strikes in Syria. He called the attack a ‘stab in the back committed by the accomplices of terrorists’.

This uncharacteristic outburst by a man who usually plays his cards close to his chest was designed to reveal what most statesmen already knew but wouldn’t say out loud, that Turkey is, at a minimum, supporting Islamic extremist rebels who most reasonable people would consider terrorists, or, in the worst case, Isis itself.

In response the Russian president has also sent a warship to the Mediterranean to prevent any similar attacks occurring again. This represents a very dangerous situation. The Russian people stand behind their leader more than ever and are baying for the blood of a traditional enemy, and the Turkish people will never tolerate outside criticism of their government when they feel national security is at stake.

However this is precisely why Putin and Erdogan will put their realist hats on and work a way out of this mess. The two men may not trust each other but they understand each other better than the West does. Both came to power at a similar time (Putin in 2000, Erdogan in 2003), both have presided over a religious revival in traditionally secular societies and both have used their overwhelming popular support to impose their will on their countries.

Still in a blind rage, Putin accused Erdogan of pursuing a deliberate policy of supporting the Islamisation of Turkey. However this is out of character. Under normal circumstances Erdogan knows that in Putin he has a regional leader who believes what happens in Turkey is the business of the Turkish leadership, and on the other hand Putin knows that Erdogan has little interest in Russian internal affairs.

Putin and Erdogan also share in a distaste for any lecturing from the West. The Russian president is steeped in paranoia that NATO is looking to overthrow him, while Erdogan will know from the Arab uprisings that the West will ditch an ally in a second when the possibility of a more liberal leadership arises. And while the West believes every voice should be heard, Putin and Erdogan both have a disdain for mass protest, taking the view that if a million people take to the streets demanding change, there’s still a more important majority who choose to stay at home and vote for the government at elections.

While Erdogan’s backing of Syrian rebels would have shown Putin that the Turkish president is no friend of Russia, his refusal to impose sanctions after the annexation of Crimea would have shown he is no stooge of the West either. In fact when the EU cancelled Russia’s South Stream pipeline, designed to deliver gas to Europe through Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Slovenia and Austria, Erdogan and Putin took the opportunity to agree an alternative pipeline through Turkey.

Right now a long-term war between Turkey and Russia might be the only thing that could dent the power of the two leaders and lead to the possibility of regime change, therefore it is something both will be looking to avoid at all costs.

And finally, 12 years is a long time for the two men to get to know each other, so no matter what happens in Syria both will worry any alternative leadership in the other’s country may be far more difficult to work with?

Kiss and make up? Maybe not, but expect de-escalation in the near future.