May would have been an ideal Prime Minister if Hillary Clinton had become president, but she will never adapt to Donald Trump’s world.
In the midst of the Brexit revolution, Britain somehow quietly ended up with one of the most un-revolutionary Prime Ministers going.
A vicar’s daughter who served for six years as David Cameron’s Home Secretary found herself entrusted to the top job by way of offending almost nobody. Leavers, Remainers, the markets and Conservative MPs were all relatively satisfied to see May become the country’s new leader. A solid, seven out of ten appointment to lead Britain through turbulent times.
But Donald Trump’s victory in America is a gamechanger. As I wrote previously, without even taking office he is well on his way to convincing voters that the things they voted for are deliverable. If his presidency follows the same single-minded path as his transition, Theresa May will not be able to satisfy Britons with some game of give and take where Remainers and Leavers both have to make concessions.
Whether their perception of how May took office is true or not, she will always be disliked by those who voted Leave for being the Remainer who stole the top job that rightfully belonged to Boris Johnson through old-fashioned Tory backroom shenanigans.
And for Remainers, she will be disliked for losing them what is left of their ties with the EU by pursuing a ‘Hard Brexit’ borne out of her inability to make her mind up.
For the record, I believe that her private position in the EU referendum was pretty similar to her public position. She was a Remainer who refused to participate actively in David Cameron’s campaign because she felt it was so embarrassing that it would damage her career prospects and standing with the public.
If Prime Minister May was following her gut instincts, it’s likely that she would push early for access to the single market. But as someone who campaigned to Remain in the EU she doesn’t have the authority to do this. Unlike Boris Johnson who supported the same policy in the aftermath of the referendum and would have been able to push it through as Prime Minister.
Because the Conservative Party contrived after David Cameron’s resignation to leave the old order in power, all that old order can now do is act on the assumption that every instinct that they had on the EU was wrong and therefore whatever their gut feel is now, they should probably do the opposite.
But the policy is not as important as the presentation and the personality. You don’t get anyone’s respect by pandering to them. Leave voters wouldn’t raise a murmur of discontent if Boris Johnson kept Britain in the single market, because a ‘Soft Brexit’ delivered with confidence is better than a ‘Hard Brexit’ delivered with trepidation.
On the other side of the Atlantic, trepidation is not a word you could use to describe Donald Trump’s approach to anything. As discussed in my previous article, he has dived head first into the task of turning his campaign into a programme for government. Wackier pledges like prosecuting Hillary Clinton have been gleefully struck off the menu while a better relationship with Russia and increased infrastructure spending have become paramount.
Yet you probably wouldn’t find a single Donald Trump voter who feels betrayed by their president-elect. The reason for this is that they are not the gun-toting racist lunatics that snooty New Yorkers and Hollywood celebrities think they are. When they chanted ‘Build That Wall’ and ‘Lock Her Up’, they didn’t mean it in the literal sense, they just wanted to watch the politically correct establishment squirm. The same principle applies to Leave voters.
Donald Trump is the sort of guy who could jump in a taxi in Essex or a pub in Burnley, understand every word of a conversation and ensure all the spoken and unspoken desires of the person he is talking to are fulfilled, whereas Theresa May quite simply is not. She is the ultimate product of the Home Counties, where anything that would ruin a dinner party can be seen as frightening.
If Hillary Clinton had been elected and the global environment had been hostile to Brexit, May would have been able to simply show the same tenacity in EU negotiations as she did with the deportation of Abu Qatada to Jordan and people would have patted her on the back for a job well done. But now, even the hardest of hard, flag-waving, Rule Britannia Brexits will seem pretty limp and half-hearted compared to what Trump has in store for America.
Read the first part of this article focusing on Trump’s plans
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