Betting might as well be suspended because one candidate is a certainty for the job.

Forget the odds, forget the talk from party insiders and forget what the papers say, the next Conservative leader will absolutely, one hundred per cent, without a shadow of a doubt be Boris Johnson.

For the sake of transparency, it probably benefits the Conservatives to have the media saying George Osborne is in with a shot, with some even going as far as to make him the favourite, but he will not be chosen as leader and it wouldn’t be surprising to see even his allies end up backing Boris.

That is because everybody knows that Boris Johnson is the Conservatives’ most electable politician, even more so than David Cameron. Yes, Cameron will be a two term Prime Minister, but he failed to win a majority over a Labour Party that was seen as having led the country to the greatest economic crisis since the 1930s before eventually being handed one on a plate by the incompetent Ed Miliband. Boris on the other hand, twice defeated a big London political beast in Ken Livingstone to become mayor.

Where Boris’s CV is based on going out and using his larger than life personality to win elections, Osborne’s is based on the work he has done inside Westminster as Chancellor. Most of the country respects his economic record, but it is a grudging respect for a man who has always appealed more as a Chancellor than a person.

While both men come from privileged backgrounds Boris has managed to use his background (and extremely wide vocabulary) to create a genuine and electable personality. Osborne on the other hand, arrived on the scene when he was appointed as Shadow Chancellor by David Cameron. So similar in age and manner were the two that it looked to the public as if Cameron had just brought in his mate from the Bullingdon Club to give him a hand. As an entity, Osborne has never really been able to separate himself from Cameron, always sticking rigidly to the PM’s PR-driven approach instead of developing a standalone personality that could inspire the nation.

It is because of this that the Conservatives would not risk picking Osborne as the next leader. Time doesn’t stand still for anyone and to choose Osborne would be an unfathomable act of self-immolation that would send out a clear message that nothing is going to change until 2025, or maybe even 2030. Despite winning the last election, this government does not have the popular support to be sending out that message.

Unlike Labour, the Conservatives are a well-oiled machine and not hostage to special interest groups, such as unions, who would rather have the party do things their way than win elections. Therefore even if George Osborne is more popular than Boris Johnson with party members (and I am extremely sceptical that this actually is the case), when push comes to shove they will vote with their heads rather than hearts and give the job to the current London Mayor.